I have a degree in Music and Politics and very rarely I will bore everyone with a post about politics rather than music.
If the polls are correct then the Conservatives should win the next election easily. But I think it is going to be much closer than we think. I will try to show why by looking at a constituency that Boris will need to win and explain why it will be incredibly difficult. I’m going to look at Stoke North as that is one I am relatively familiar with as I used to live next door to this constituency and it is a Conservative target seat. Here are the voting patterns for the last two elections:
What is interesting about this seat is that Labour have held it since the dawn of time and so the first thing you would think is why this is a marginal. The answer of course is Brexit. Stoke was one of the areas that voted strongly for Leave and was a centre for UKIP. However, UKIP didn’t feature in the last election and the numbers might shed a light on what happened in the 2017 election. In 2015 UKIP was very strong coming third and only 1,000 votes off the Conservatives. If you add the Conservatives and UKIP together you have about a 5,000 lead over Labour. But in the last election those 9,542 votes were split between the Conservatives and Labour and Labour still won. It helps that they have an MP in Ruth Smeeth who although was a Remainer, is one of the rebels who voted for Boris’ deal. I don’t know if the Brexit Party are going to put a candidate here but if they do, they are going to split the vote. Will the old Kippers go straight to the Brexit Party? Will they go to Boris’ deal making party? Will they stay loyal to the MP who has defied her leader because of the way her constituency voted and wants to respect the Referendum result?
All these questions show why it actually will incredibly difficult for Boris to win an election. He is going to lose seats to the Liberal Democrats in the South, to Labour in Remainer London, to the SNP in Remainer Scotland and he is hoping to get a majority by getting people who have never voted Tory to change the habit of a lifetime. Some people think he is a charismatic guy who can win people over, and Stokies are incensed by the referendum not being respected but are they really going to start to vote for an Old Etonian ex-Mayor of London in Tunstall and Burslem?
I have also heard that Conservatives have lost a huge amount of activists to the Brexit Party and Corbyn still has his loyal Momentum force – the Conservatives have nothing like that and when you are fighting an election you would not believe how important it is to have enthusiastic activists to get your vote out. And Boris honestly doesn’t know who his vote actually is anymore.
I don’t bet with money but I will put my reputation on the line and say that Boris is not going to get a majority. We are going to be in the same mess as before.